Some weird, German communist, hello. He/him pronouns and all that. Obsessed with philosophy and history, secondarily obsessed with video games as a cultural medium. Also somewhat able to program.

https://abnormalbeings.space/

https://liberapay.com/Wxnzxn/

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Joined 4 months ago
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Cake day: March 6th, 2025

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  • The way I understand it, the whole “paradox” is more: If we aren’t the first culture-producing life, and if technological life is not an exceptionally rare occurence, and if technological life is persistent and not (almost) always fleeting - going by the age of other stars and their exoplanets in the galaxy, we would expect there to be signs of life visible in abundance (e.g. electromagnetic waves of clearly artificial origin as “background chatter”).

    The fact that this isn’t so, indicates that something about that assumption has to be wrong. What exactly, we cannot easily say, and theories go all the way from “Life like humanity really is exceedingly rare and needs very special circumstances and ‘luck’” to “technological life quickly evolves to a point, where it doesn’t produce any signs like that” to “there is a great filter still ahead of us, which extinguishes life wherever it arises” to “life behaves according to Dark Forest rules and actively tries to stay hidden”.

    But all of those are currently just wild speculation. The only thing certain is, that we have found none of the abundance of chatter we would expect from many worlds having had more time than our Earth to theoretically develop life akin to our own. And the most we so far have noticed are some sporadic signs that may hint at basic life, e.g. on K2-18b, but it is all in the “very fuzzy and uncertain” ballpark.












  • That has been my impression of present dynamics and historical data, too - boom-bust-cycles of either some other platform fucking up or there being curiosity from some synergetic effect, then the initial wave breaking over time - but usually also leaving behind at least more (genuinely active) users than before the wave. For Lemmy, one can definitely see some reduction in activity, I think - not dramatically, but I do think it’s noticeable if you spend a lot of time here. E.g. unlike during the last Exodus, I see more of “the same users” than before. There’s still enough content, it does not feel dead by a long shot, and who knows when the next wave may hit.

    That wave-like character makes it hard to estimate organic growth too, at times. The mass influx of users dying off over weeks will give shrinking numbers there, even if some users from organic growth who are more likely to stay and be active than “mass exodus users” may still join there. Also, users moving in between MBin/PieFed/Lemmy will fudge numbers, but they are essentially in the same ecosystem.







  • Psychopaths, sycophants and grifters vying for power were all very prevalent at German universities and research labs at that time. While Engineering still kind of worked - as it was needed for the war machinery and larger industry - even there, with it being “politically neutral”, there was a brain drain - because education allowing for creative thinking was curtailed more broadly, and many talented minds were killed or displaced or even just disfavoured in favour of more nepotistic choices.

    And the myth of “German engineering” being fundamentally way above allied engineering during the war still holds in some circles, when mostly it was about different priorities (like - reliability instead of complex engineering, or the proximity fuse instead of rocketry, or radar instead of jet engines), and even in the spaces where Germans had a leg up on their enemies, it was not a fundamental advantage, but a gap that was being bridged even before German scientists were recruited after the war.







  • Yeah, I can’t argue with numbers - although when I searched for more of those numbers (because there was no report linked in the article), I am at least somewhat sceptical as of now. Mostly because all the outlets I have seen report on it are… well, not really neutral. This site, too, has a weird amount of AI images and praise of Trump (e.g. like in this article).

    So, I had a bit of a look around, and as expected - if only one side reports something, there is usually at least something missing:

    For example:
    https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say-argentinas-poverty-rate-has-fallen-to-368.phtml

    Meanwhile the ODSA (Observatorio de la Deuda Social Argentina) poverty watchdog of the UCA Catholic University voiced that although the projected indices had reached similar levels to the previous year for the third quarter of 2024, the consumer capacity of households was reduced by the higher costs of basic services such as electricity, water, gas and transport, among others.

    Unlike the line traced by the total shopping-basket, the measurement of multidimensional poverty does not only focus on family earnings but also the lack of access to basic sources of welfare in from one to six dimensions.

    “The current panorama shows an aggravation of the situation in this sense - multidimensional poverty (measured as income plus one lack) increased inter-annually from 39.8 to 41.6 percent and within that figure structural poverty (three wants or more) also rose from 22.4 to 23.9 percent,” they alerted.

    This is a massive reduction, but it is a reduction from a massive surge:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-poverty-hit-barrios-food-emergency-takes-hold-2024-10-01/

    So - seems like there is at least some cherry-picking and reporting early projections as fully manifested facts going on here, but the recovery itself is still good news for the people actually living there, of course. I’d like to wait for more fully-fledged analysis reported by different outlets than this. How likely is this to be sustainable? How many additional factors will be at play? Even if Milei’s reforms turn out to be a miracle of a new way to “do austerity right” - I will only believe that if there is better analysis than this, because Libertarian-adjacent outlets praising this, sometimes with misrepresenting data, like, e.g. this graph I came across:

    (Milei came to power at the end of 2023, as a reminder, so the graph is coloured in a deliberately misleading way)

    Those kind of reporting sadly does not spark confidence for me.