Was in a company wide meeting yesterday. The cto was talking about OpenAI being too big to fail.
I have a take on that. I’m going with hank green on this one. https://youtu.be/jOR4wuiPeEQ
The entire US economy is being held up by the ultra-wealthy right now. We should be in a recession, but they’re pushing all the right buttons in all the right places to keep stocks where they need to be to keep running.
The AI bubble isn’t blindly bobbing around on the top waiting to pop, it’s orchestrated. Yes, it’s a bubble. Yes the stated value there isn’t anywhere near real. But it’s not going to pop until they let it. Investors are going to stay with it as long as they’re not scared of it going away and the ultra rich are using it as a vehicle to maintain wealth and unless they somehow screw up, it’s not going anywhere until they decide to do something different.
OpenAI isn’t too big to fail, but the Industry as a whole is too well-funded and tightly controlled to let it fail, for now.
Ah so a market upset the rich control the timing for, virtually indistinguishable from a bubble unless you’re holding all the cards, amazing analysis by HanK Green.
2008 called. They want their huge bailouts back.
The big guys will be fine. Your 401(k)? Fucked.
OpenAI is small fry compared to the other AI players. They are the least likely to get a bailout.
This is actually a moment where “Thanks Obama” applies, what a precedence to set… Should have given the relief on the demand-side, not the fucking banks.
The tech bros have been disastrously wrong about the future of technology twice since Moore’s Law broke and the endless treadmill of computer upgrades stopped: about crypto and about the metaverse. They’re desperate to not be wrong again, and they think that by spending enough money they can generate a reality distortion field that actually makes overhyped AI financially feasible. So they’re going to keep pumping the money in as long as they’ve got it. But even their wallets are finite.
As someone who has regularly used virtual worlds for 20 years, the whole Metaverse thing was so hilarious.
Like, Facebook did not invent 3D online worlds, there are 3D online worlds older than Facebook.
“But wait, metaverse is not just 3D Virtual Worlds.”
Which inecitably leads to "ok, so its just “The Internet”.
As for the “Constantly being wrong.” At somepoint, these people forgot that “having an idea” does not mean “Having a useful idea.” You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like “People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone.” Yeah, and they said the same thing about a dozen other new idea that time forgot for every Internet or every iPhone idea that took off. Not every idea is “the next big thing”. Statisrically, most ideas are “Not ever a thing.”
As for the “Constantly being wrong.” At somepoint, these people forgot that “having an idea” does not mean “Having a useful idea.”
Absolutely. They can’t fathom anymore that, just because they want something, it doesn’t mean that anyone else does. Or that they’re not already getting it, even if they do.
You hear arguments about all these flash in the pan bull shit concepts like “People said the same thing about the internet or the iPhone.”
Right, and I always think, “both of those solved actual problems that hadn’t been solved before.” Problems that I remember feeling, as a person who was conscious in the 90s: the need for quick, efficient, long-distance information transfer, and the problem that computers were stuck in your house when a lot of what you needed them for was while you were walking around.
Cryptocurrency didn’t solve a problem that most people feel (and, I would argue, it didn’t efficiently solve a problem that anyone actually has). The metaverse didn’t solve any new problems at all (as you noted, the one thing it could do that anyone wanted was something that was already being done). And AI was already being used for anything it was good for long before Sam Altman convinced a dozen billionaires to give him multiple small-countries’-GDPs.
And since being a good businessman really means finding a solution and offering a product that solves it, they’re just proving how bad they are at business.
AI has the momentum only from investors and banks. But unfortunately, the paying customers are few and far between. Also, don’t forget that these companies are losing money even on the paying customers. There doesn’t seem to be any path to profitability for these companies. So, no wonder everyone is saying it’s a bubble.
I use AI some, but if it vanished, it woukd not change anything and I would just go back to my okd ways.
Also, my two cents, the biggest hinderance is how prudish they are, because they are disgustingly prudish. How many but tech pushes worked because of porn? Most of these mainstream AIs just shit the bed at the most PG tier conversations or actions. Basically, the current push by the hugely conservative nanny state is clashing with these people’s desire to push this stuff into the Mainstream.
The sad thing is that when it bursts it won’t do it in a hilarious “billionaires all get shafted” way like it didn’t any of the previous times. It’s far more likely to take the form of the most powerful AIs suddenly only being accessible to the wealthy.
It will burst because billionaires decided to get out. They will know just before it happens and time their exit perfectly. Everyone else will suffer and then they will buy right back at a massive discount. They have all the information, the fastest movement, and control of the levers. I refuse to play this unwinnable game.
Lemmy users waiting for AI to stop working because it’ll start training on AI generated content
I’m getting real sick of the headlines. “Science company says AI will be used to Re-Write the human genome, and identify future Terrorists for the CIA with only random lists of birth certificates, while it designs a 3D printable human heart that has built in wifi controls with 100% police access!”
It’s because they keep securing their loans with eachother’s loans, it’s all negative numbers though
The good ole credit swap trick
I hope not, that’s basically what 2008 was. We could at least get a new reason.
Sort of, except this time instead of it being millions of homes about to be foreclosed on its like 10 multibillion dollar companies, so the real problem is who is positioned to buy those companies when their share price crashes and they need to be sold for peanu… fuck it’s Trump isn’t it? In 2 months we’ll be using MicroTrump Werd to write reports and Tesla Xsell to build spreadsheets, but only when we can navigate our way through a minefield of vibecoded slop and ads for ICE.
You jest but USGov already owns 10% of Intel, the seal’s been cracked, and it’d be a suitably fascist move.
Considering that both Intel and AMD originally grew up on government contracts, It’s a wonder that the government doesn’t own 49% of each.
Damn if only there were some sort of alternative not owned by anyone and built by the community. If I’m making impossible wishes I’d also want it to be free to use. Maybe even open source.
Nah that would never work. Who would put in that kind of effort for free? Silly idea.
Sadly my company has complete say over the platforms I use when at work. Given their scramble to adopt copilot with little or no obvious benefits and unknown depth of security flaws, I don’t hold much hope that they will pivot to an entire new platform suite on Microsoft’s collapse …
My personal bet is we get a turbo great depression and a near total flattening of the economy as well as USD being worthless than literal monopoly money.
Well everyone’s index-based investments will also take a nose dive to be fair. So that’s going to be a lot of people’s retirement funds set back by several years, maybe a decade.
they should be fine so long as their funds freak out and sell the dip … obviously the people about to retire might have to hold off for a while
That’s managed funds, which are costly and don’t tend to perform better than index funds in the long term (unless your fund is managed by Warren Buffett). Index funds will by definition take a huge fall because like 30% of the S&P 500 by market cap for an example is heavily AI-invested companies (just a couple of companies at that).
I’ve moved all of mine to European and Asian indexes to be less affected when it happens, but since I was using a national pension system fund up till now, it’ll take until like May or whatever till the move is complete. So I hope there’s no crash before that at least. At least any new payments already go to the funds I’ve selected rather and can sell on a whim, rather than the old system where the bank chose the exact ETFs and I can only sell/move funds 3 times a year and have to apply for it beforehand.
But anyone else who’s still stuck in that system with a composite fund dominated by US-based index ETFs, will take a massive plunge when it happens.
Capitalism doesn’t breed enough innovation for new reasons. That’s why they need AI, to come up with new bullshit.
The way AI works, wouldn’t they just get the old bullshit, but reworded each time? With a side of hallucinations ofc
You have unleashed the cursed gif upon us
I closed my eyes and visualized AI execs in the cab when it hits.
It was beautiful.
What was it, Sam Altman can stay irrational longer than you can last between klarna payments?
https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk this video has the ending if anyone is cursed by this gif
If anyone edging from the gif wants to finish here is the time stamp: https://youtu.be/HAkCypsQIQk?t=246
Boo, no engine in it… Thanks though.
Apropos for the metaphor however.
Yeah, there was another ‘truck vs bollard’ video where the entire engine flies out and continues on its merry way for a while. Was much more engaging than this.
How nice to make the entire driver’s seat a crumple zone.
I fear it never will, because I suspect whoever is pushing for all of this dissident tracking on the Internet is propping it up with dark money.
The people in charge of these companies already have all the money
The US can always print more money.
Edging me fr fr
More like, the AGI that those CEOs are saying will solve all the world’s problems as long as we keep giving them billions of dollars and more data centers.
Right? How can everyone not see it? Didn’t they hear Dario say everyone will be replaced in 6 months for the 20th time since 2022?
deleted by creator
He’s Wario’s dumber and less put together cousin
This would have been the time to use the version with an actual ending.
Yeah! Trump is fucked this time!
