They can just hold the world’s supply of oil, ammonia and helium to ransom. Breaking an Iranian blockade by force would require a WW2-scale effort, with the US, Europe, China and the gulf states fighting alongside each other to take Tehran and impose some kind of regime change all parties find acceptable.
China aren’t strictly speaking allies. They get a lot of oil from Iran and have plenty of deals in place, to the point that many people believe that the Venezuela coup and Iran war are a US ploy to destabilise China specifically.
China basically stay out of geopolitics far more than people assume. They are very unlikely to enter the Iran war on either side, ever.
Imagine if Iran nuked Washington DC, or even every American city with a population over 1 million. Would the US government surrender? Would the American people surrender even if the government did?
I imagine the US government would retreat to its mountain bunkers and say “come and get it”, and many American civilians would join or support guerillas to fight any Iranian attempt at occupation. And that’s true despite many Americans hating the current regime.
So why would the Iranian government or its people be any different?
I’m not saying you’re wrong; I suspect the IRGC is stubborn enough to never surrender no matter what happens to Iran’s civilians… But that’s because they’re stupid.
Hence I think this is a bad analogy, as Japan surrendered in exactly the circumstances you’re describing. In Man In The High Castle, the US did too, and I think that’s a plausible fictional scenario, as nuclear war basically makes resistance impractical.
Says who? Definitely not Iran or any international organisation, and even Netanyahu only claims they are two weeks away for the last 20 years.
They probably could make dirty bombs with the enriched Uranium they have, but unless they are playing the world’s best feint, they aren’t going to have a working nuke any time soon.
That’s the point. You would need to conquer the entire country to a point where firing off truck-launched ballistic missiles and Shahed drones isn’t viable any more.
They can just hold the world’s supply of oil, ammonia and helium to ransom. Breaking an Iranian blockade by force would require a WW2-scale effort, with the US, Europe, China and the gulf states fighting alongside each other to take Tehran and impose some kind of regime change all parties find acceptable.
Isnt china and Iran allies and already have agreements for discounted oil trades?
China aren’t strictly speaking allies. They get a lot of oil from Iran and have plenty of deals in place, to the point that many people believe that the Venezuela coup and Iran war are a US ploy to destabilise China specifically.
China basically stay out of geopolitics far more than people assume. They are very unlikely to enter the Iran war on either side, ever.
China and Russia would be fighting against the EU and US in that hypothetical wwiii scenario
Unless Dickhead drops a nuke and threatens more. Which I wouldn’t put past him.
Imagine if Iran nuked Washington DC, or even every American city with a population over 1 million. Would the US government surrender? Would the American people surrender even if the government did?
I imagine the US government would retreat to its mountain bunkers and say “come and get it”, and many American civilians would join or support guerillas to fight any Iranian attempt at occupation. And that’s true despite many Americans hating the current regime.
So why would the Iranian government or its people be any different?
Iran doesn’t have 5,177 nuclear warheads.
I’m not saying you’re wrong; I suspect the IRGC is stubborn enough to never surrender no matter what happens to Iran’s civilians… But that’s because they’re stupid.
Hence I think this is a bad analogy, as Japan surrendered in exactly the circumstances you’re describing. In Man In The High Castle, the US did too, and I think that’s a plausible fictional scenario, as nuclear war basically makes resistance impractical.
Iran also has nukes.
Says who? Definitely not Iran or any international organisation, and even Netanyahu only claims they are two weeks away for the last 20 years.
They probably could make dirty bombs with the enriched Uranium they have, but unless they are playing the world’s best feint, they aren’t going to have a working nuke any time soon.
Still wouldn’t put it past him unfortunately
No they don’t
Have you looked at a map? Do you know how far Hormuz is from Tehran?
That’s the point. You would need to conquer the entire country to a point where firing off truck-launched ballistic missiles and Shahed drones isn’t viable any more.